Bitcoin Price (BTC) Outlook: $500K Will Have to Wait a Lot Longer
Geoff Kendrick has seen enough.
"Recent price action in bitcoin BTC$90,375.60 has been challenging, to say the least," said Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets in a Tuesday note titled "Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze."
Key among the reasons for Kendrick's shift is the collapse in the share values of bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury companies (DATs). One leg of his bull case, said Kendrick, was continued waves of buying by these firms. Their sharp price declines — many, if not most, now trading for below the value of the bitcoin on their balance sheets — leaves them seriously constrained in their ability raise further capital for fresh BTC purchases.
"We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support," said Kendrick.
The bitcoin bull case going forward, Kendrick continued, now rests solely with ETF buying. He thus slashed his year-end 2025 price outlook to $100,000 from $200,000, 2026 to $150,000 from $300,000, 2027 to $225,000 from $400,000 and 2028 to $300,000 from $500,000. That $500,000 target will now have to wait until 2030, said Kendrick.
Institutional access and investment-committee decision-making can take time, concluded Kendrick, but could ultimately drive the next major wave of demand.
Read more: JPMorgan Maintains Bitcoin's Gold-Linked Target at $170K Despite Recent Drop
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