The Daily View: Material disintegration

AT LEAST five vessels have been attacked by either Russia or Ukraine since the latter struck two sanctioned tankers in late November.

One of the vessels hit in that opening volley, Kairos (IMO: 9236004), was eventually towed to anchorage in Bulgaria after it found itself in EU waters (the events that led it there are somewhat disputed) with a hole in the side. Thankfully, it was unladen when it was struck, but it has served as a timely reminder of the risks both sides are taking with their campaign on shipping.

Turkish ferry Cenk T (IMO: 7528635) was hit in what has been assessed as a mistake, or at least collateral damage, at Chornomorsk last week after Russia launched a retaliatory strike at the Odesa region.

One security analyst described the events of the past few weeks as a “material disintegration” of the security situation in the Black Sea.

The risk to shadow fleet vessels or Ukraine-flagged, owned or operated vessels remains high, but that’s not new.

There is now a “meaningful risk” to uninvolved vessels transiting in the area, EOS Risk said in its latest assessment.

The latest assessments from several security analysts paint a worrying picture: being in the wrong place at the wrong time could be as risky as flying a Russian flag or carrying sanctioned crude.

It’s not always been that way.

The Black Sea has been a live theatre of war since the Russian invasion in 2022, but risk there has spiked and declined in that period. Arrivals at Ukrainian ports from foreign markets stabilised in late 2023 and increased to just under half of pre-invasion averages by early 2024.

Whether this most recent escalation is a reflection of the ongoing peace talks is debatable, but the timing certainly seems coincidental.

The lesson for shipping is perhaps just how quickly risk landscapes can change. Of course, for those sanctioned tankers going to and from Novorossiysk, that risk has always been priced in, but now there’s a chance your seafarers could find themselves at the pointy end of an Iskander missile, despite having no skin in the game at all.

It is a lesson that should perhaps be heeded as shipping looks to return to the Red Sea.

Rockets do not have access to Lloyd’s List Intelligence beneficial ownership data, and in both the Black and Red Seas the people firing them have not exactly displayed a huge amount of respect for the lives of seafarers either.

And besides, arguing you had “nothing to do with any of this” won’t fix the big hole in the side of your ship if it finds itself in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Joshua Minchin
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

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