North Korean Shipments of Shells to Russia Tail Off
Analysis carried out by Egor Feoktistov for the independent Russian research organization the Open Source Centre (OSC) has shown in detail how North Korean ammunition has been transferred to Russia, identifying the ships, personnel, routes, deception techniques used and the volumes being moved. The review suggests that the volume transferred appears to be tailing off.
Since the North Koreans began shipping ammunition to Russia for its war on Ukraine, four cargo ships have been identified as carrying the ammunition, owned by two separate companies. MG-Flot owns the Sierre Leone-registered Angara (IMO 9124043), and the Russian-flagged Maia-1 (IMO 9358010), and Sovfracht owns the Antigua and Barbados-flagged Maria (IMO 9266566) and the Russian-flagged Lady R (IMO 9161003). The two companies and three of the ships are sanctioned in multiple jurisdictions, the Maria being the only exception. Two Russian agencies Sovfracht-Vostok and Dzhamaldin Pashaev, also sanctioned, have acted as shipping managers for the shipments.
The OSC report has identified multiple crew members and the captains on board the four ships, primarily from social media postings, even though sailors are banned from taking mobile phones on board. Many of these sailors have also previously crewed arms-carrying vessels engaged on the Syrian Express run from Russia to Tartus.
Following the agreement between Russia and North Korea over the transfer of men and materials several months previously, ammunition shipments began in earnest in September 2023. Since then, the four ships have carried out over 100 transits to Russia, moving the ammunition from the North Korean port of Rajin, initially through Vladivostok to the former Soviet submarine base at Dunay and later to the Vostochny container port. On AIS declarations and elsewhere, these trips have not been to North Korea but have been attributed by spoofing to Busan in South Korea. The ammunition has then been moved forward by rail, principally to the Tikhoretsk ammunition depot in Krasnodar, from where it has been forwarded northwards to the Donbas or across the Kerch Strait to service the Crimea and Kherson fronts. The Tikhoretsk depot has been hit several times since by massive Ukrainian drone attacks.
The ammunition transported has primarily been artillery 122mm and 152mm calibers, and rockets for the Grad multiple launch rocket system. There have been numerous reports of the inconsistent and differing quality of the North Korean ammunition, which requires its own separate range tables notwithstanding its supposed 'Warsaw Pact' commonality. According to estimates by Reuters, by early 2025 North Korean ammunition was accounting for between 75% to 100% of all daily artillery fires. The total volumes shipped so far has been estimated by OSC as between 8 to 11 million rounds, at a rate of 350,000 rounds per month. In making this estimate, OSC have not relied solely on ship movements spotted by satellite, which can miss movements made under cloud cover.
Since the beginning of this year, there has however been a marked change in the established pattern of shipments.
Only two shipments have so far been noted in 2026, the first in January carried by the Angara and the second by the Lady R in March. The Maia-1 and the Maria appear to been taken off the route and transferred to other Russian Ministry of Defense tasks during 2025.
Some have suggested that volumes have dropped because Russian domestic production of ammunition has been stepped up, lessening the need for the inferior North Korean ammunition. Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) believe however that the volumes being exported have collapsed because North Korean stockpiles have now been depleted, a theory supported by reports that ammunition being shipped recently has been of particularly poor end-of-line quality or time-expired. The HUR analysis would have been corroborated by knowledge of reductions in the weight of Russian fire missions.
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Just as Iranian and Russian dark fleet tankers enjoy freedom of movement, the OSC report again highlights how sanctioned vessels can transit freely through international waters without either impediment or consequences.
Top image: Lady R (Cengiz Tokgoz / VesselFinder)
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