Iran Confirms Two-Week Ceasefire and a Limited Reopening of Hormuz
Iran has confirmed that it plans to allow marine traffic to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during a two-week ceasefire with the Trump administration - subject to conditions.
Following last-minute negotiations mediated by the government of Pakistan, Trump agreed to further talks based on the framework of Iran's 10-point plan for the next two weeks, and to hold off on further strikes. For its part, Iran promised to cease its attacks and allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz "via coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations."
The Iranian statement on the ceasefire came from foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, and it marks the first time that Iran has confirmed the White House's claims of significant progress towards a diplomatic agreement.
The statement appears to imply a continued role for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in managing traffic in the strait, during the ceasefire and after. For weeks, the IRGC has been operating a tollway system between the islands of Qeshm and Larak, on the north side of the strait. At least 35 foreign merchant vessels have paid the toll to cross, industry insiders told the Wall Street Journal. Over the course of the conflict, Iran has regularly attacked vessels outside of this traffic lane (many of them far from the Strait of Hormuz).
Iran has provided the U.S. negotiating team with a 10-point list of demands for a permanent end to hostilities, and Trump said that he would accept that list as the basis for further talks. Permanent Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz is the second demand on the list, preceded only by a demand for the cessation of all U.S. attacks. If granted, it would be a strategic win for Tehran: Before the war, the strait was open to navigation without constraints, in accordance with international law; since the outbreak of the war, it has become a source of leverage and revenue for the IRGC. Other demands further down the list could be even more difficult for the White House: for a permanent end to the conflict, Iran also wants full U.S. acceptance of its nuclear enrichment activities, which every U.S. presidential administration has opposed. Iran's Supreme National Security portrayed the U.S. in-principle acceptance of the plan as a "great victory."
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Reactions to the announcement were mixed. Iran and Israel briefly continued to exchange fire after news of the agreement broke; Israeli officials said that the ceasefire would not include Lebanon, where Israeli ground forces are currently conducting an operation against Hezbollah.
In Asia, stock markets soared on anticipation of relief for the region's severe constraints on supplies of oil and refined products. Brent crude futures fell below $100 from previous daily averages north of $110, and WTI futures plummeted by 15 percent to settle at $95. Dow and S&P 500 futures rose by two percent, and Nasdaq futures jumped by three percent.
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