Ahead of Russian Gas Ban, Europe Buys Almost All Cargoes From Yamal LNG
Though Russia is currently trying to attract Asian buyers for its LNG, Europe’s dependence on the gas has risen to record levels. A recent analysis of Russia’s Yamal Arctic LNG exports in Q1 2026 - conducted by the campaign group Urgewald based on Kpler data -shows that Europe has become almost the sole buyer for the gas.
Over the last four years, Europe alone has spent over $230 billion on Russian oil and gas imports, which complicates the bloc’s effort to end all Russian energy imports. The current Middle East crisis further entangles Europe to Russian LNG. Looking into Q1 2026 data, Urgewald said that Europe remains the indispensable market for Russia’s Yamal LNG project. This is a structured market relationship, with some contracts running into the 2040s. Europe is not simply a buyer - it is the logistical backbone of the Yamal LNG project, added Urgewald.
For the first quarter of this year, EU imported 69 cargoes out of 71 that Yamal LNG shipped globally. This translates to 97% of Yamal LNG deliveries for the period, equivalent to 5.07 million tons. China received just two cargoes in January and none in February and March.
For the deliveries, the EU made $3.33 billion in payments to Russia for the period. This is a significantly high energy bill, inflated by the global spike in gas prices due to the Hormuz blockade. The benchmark price for natural gas in Europe rose by 51% in March compared to January and February prices. The average TTF index price in January and February was $41 per MWh but rose in March to reach $61 per MWh.
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Europe is an attractive market for Russian gas imports as it offers a quick turnaround for the small, specialized fleet used in Russian Arctic LNG transport. The Yamal project relies heavily on a fleet of just 14 Arc7 ice class tankers, providing year-round access to the Gulf of Ob. Non-Arc7 tankers can only provide seasonal support between June and December. Thus, without European ports, Yamal’s output would be severely reduced.
Russia’s pivot to Asia will require an expanded fleet, which could take years to build. Last week, it was revealed that the Russian gas producer Novatek had registered a shipbuilding subsidiary, Northern Engineering. While the company is expected to boost Novatek’s gas transport fleet, this will not happen in the short-term.
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