The Daily View: An industry in limbo

WASHINGTON insists Iran’s naval threat has been reduced to a mere irritant.

The shipping industry is going to take more convincing.

Testifying before the US Senate on Thursday, Admiral Brad Cooper said American forces have destroyed more than 90% of Iran’s stockpile of roughly 8,000 naval mines, leaving Tehran with only “nuisance capability”. Iran, he argued, can still harass shipping with drones, rockets and proxies, but no longer has the means to challenge US air or maritime dominance or mount significant regional operations.

Events in the Middle East Gulf told a different story. As Cooper spoke, India condemned the attack and sinking of one of its vessels in the Gulf of Oman, calling the strike “unacceptable”. At the same time, Chinese private security firm Sinoguards was scrambling to respond to the apparent seizure of one of its floating armouries off Fujairah — a move likely to unsettle Beijing, given how heavily Chinese shipping relies on Sinoguards for armed protection in high‑risk waters.

For the global shipping industry, the threat feels anything but downgraded. Iran still exerts de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows. And while Washington and Tehran both claim China is aligned with them, Beijing’s position remains deliberately ambiguous.

Iranian state media reported that Chinese vessels were granted passage through the strait at Beijing’s request, citing the “strategic partnership” between the two countries. Yet US officials told Reuters that Washington and Beijing agree on at least one point: no state should be allowed to impose shipping tolls in Hormuz. That rare alignment comes as US President Donald Trump meets President Xi Jinping, with Iran’s grip on the strait high on the agenda.

China has avoided directly criticising Iran’s toll‑taking, even while condemning the US blockade. It remains a big buyer of Iranian oil and has resisted US pressure to use its influence to push Tehran toward a deal. Last month, Beijing vetoed a US‑backed UN resolution urging co-operation to protect commercial shipping, prompting US ambassador Mike Waltz to accuse China of tolerating Iran “holding the global economy at gunpoint”.

Washington may believe Iran’s threat has been neutralised. For everyone who sails through Hormuz, the reality looks far less reassuring.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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