Greece Braces for Growth Forecast Downgrade

Τhe European Commission is expected to revise down its growth forecast for the Greek economy from 2.4% to 2% when it publishes its spring projections on Thursday, May 21. The revision comes against a backdrop of heightened global uncertainty, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding a new layer of concern to an already complex outlook.

Greece’s economic team is watching the situation closely. The absence of a deal between the United States and Iran has kept regional tensions elevated, and analysts warn that even a near-term de-escalation would not immediately translate into normalized oil flows. Market adjustment, they note, takes time. Upward pressure on energy prices is therefore expected to persist, a particularly sensitive issue for Greece, which remains heavily dependent on oil and natural gas imports. Any escalation feeds rapidly into consumer prices: Greece’s national consumer price index rose 5.4% year-on-year in April, sharply above the 2% recorded in the same comparison a year earlier.

Private consumption and investment to drive growth

For 2026, economic activity is expected to be supported primarily by private