Wall Street Lifts Targets on Five Below, Ulta Beauty and Nature’s Sunshine Ahead of Key Earnings Reports
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For Nature's Sunshine, Canaccord updated its models ahead of Q4 results and raised its target to $29 from $22, maintaining its Buy rating. The firm is expecting another quarter of robust sales growth and is focused on regional performance, the innovation pipeline, growth-driving initiatives, and early fiscal 2026 outlook. Nature's Sunshine reports today after the market close.
Company Snapshot and Recent Performance
Five Below operates 1,907 stores across 44 states and has been one of the standout performers in specialty retail over the past year. The stock has gained 16.7% year to date and is up 167.94% over the past year, trading at $219.82 as of March 9. That puts the stock above Barclays' new $211 target, which is itself a meaningful signal about near-term expectations. The company's Q3 revenue of $1.038 billion beat estimates by 5.57%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.68 came in well ahead of the $0.26 consensus estimate. Full-year guidance calls for net sales of $4.62 billion to $4.65 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.71 to $5.89.
Ulta Beauty has pulled back from recent highs, trading at $642.22 after slipping 5.14% over the past week and 6.97% over the past month. Still, the stock is up 6.15% year to date and has more than doubled over the past year, gaining 80.69%. The company's Q3 revenue of $2.858 billion beat estimates by 5.70%, with comparable store sales up 6.3% driven by a 3.8% increase in average ticket and 2.4% increase in transactions. The company's acquisition of Space NK, adding 84 stores across the UK and Ireland, marks its first international footprint.
Nature's Sunshine is the smallest of the three, with a market cap just over $443 million. The stock trades at $25.13, up 16.45% year to date and 72.48% over the past year. Q3 revenue of $128.3 million beat the $120.3 million estimate, and adjusted EBITDA surged 42% year over year to $15.2 million. Digital sales grew 52% year over year, and the company's Asia-Pacific segment showed particular strength, with Japan and China both growing more than 30%.
Why the Move Matters Now
The timing of these target revisions is deliberate. Ulta Beauty reports March 12 after the close, and Five Below follows on March 18 after the market. Nature's Sunshine reports today after the close. Analysts are positioning their models before results arrive, and the direction of those revisions matters: all three targets moved higher, even if the degree of conviction differs.
Canaccord's $799 target on Ulta implies meaningful upside from current levels, while Barclays' $211 target on Five Below sits below where the stock is currently trading, making it more of a confirmation of quality than a call to action. For Nature's Sunshine, the $29 target from Canaccord is close to the stock's 52-week high of $28.14, suggesting the analyst sees the recent run as justified and potentially still has room ahead if Q4 delivers.
Ulta's forward P/E of 23x and Five Below's forward P/E of 32x reflect the premium investors are already paying for growth in both names. Nature's Sunshine trades at a forward P/E of 24x with an EV/EBITDA of just 8.86x, which looks relatively modest for the growth rate it has been delivering.
Context and Analyst Framing
Ulta Beauty carries a $3 billion share repurchase program with approximately $2 billion remaining, consistent cash generation, and a business model that has proven resilient across beauty cycles. Five Below's stock currently trades above Barclays' revised $211 target. Nature's Sunshine has a smaller float and limited analyst coverage compared to the other two names. Earnings reports from all three companies over the next eight days are expected to include initial fiscal 2026 guidance.
Key Risks to Watch
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Tariff exposure for Five Below: The company explicitly acknowledged tariff risk on merchandise sourced outside the United States in its guidance, which could pressure margins if trade policy tightens further.
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Consumer spending pressure for Ulta: Analysts flagged that consumer wallets remain pressured and value-seeking behavior is intensifying, which could weigh on average ticket growth even if traffic holds.
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Concentration and coverage risk for Nature's Sunshine: With limited analyst coverage and a relatively small float of approximately 12.2 million shares, NATR can be volatile around earnings and news events.
This is not personalized financial advice. 247wallst.com and its writers do not own the stocks mentioned. Always do your own due diligence before investing.
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