Bitcoin Could Hit $1M in 10 Years If It Does This One Thing, Says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan
Adding: “There are still miles to go, but with these undercurrents, capturing one-sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn’t seem extreme.”
Recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) data suggests investor demand may be shifting back toward Bitcoin.
Over the past 30 days, net flows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive, reversing the heavy withdrawals seen earlier in the year.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has led the rebound, attracting about $185.8 million in recent inflows.
At the same time, gold-backed ETFs have begun to see outflows following a prolonged period of strong demand.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest U.S. gold ETF, recently recorded its biggest single-day withdrawal in more than two years, according to market commentary from The Kobeissi Letter.
Other Analysts See Strong Bitcoin Price Upside
Hougan’s projection comes amid a renewed wave of bullish forecasts from crypto analysts.
Pseudonymous analyst PlanB said Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current 2024–2028 market cycle under his Stock-to-Flow model, which values Bitcoin based on its programmed scarcity.
The model implies an average price near $500,000 for the cycle, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially reach between $250,000 and $1 million if historical patterns repeat.
Caution Remains
Not all market observers are rushing to buy bitcoin at current levels.
In a recent interview, Maelstrom Fund Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes said he would not purchase Bitcoin today—even if he had only $1 to invest—arguing that the next major rally will likely require a renewed wave of global liquidity.
Hayes said he is waiting for a clearer signal that central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, are returning to aggressive monetary easing.
For now, he said his portfolio is positioned defensively, split evenly between cash and gold.
“When central banks start printing money again, that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin,” he said.
In the meantime, Hayes warned that several macroeconomic risks could pressure markets in the near term, including geopolitical tensions and potential economic disruption linked to rapid advances in AI.
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