Q3 2025 Bitcoin Valuation Report

This report is authored by Tiger Research, outlining our price prediction for Bitcoin in Q3 2025 at $190,000, based on record global liquidity, accelerated institutional adoption, and a structural shift towards an institution-led market.

Key Takeaways

• Accelerated Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin - The opening of 401(k) pension investment channels in the U.S., with ETFs and corporate entities continuing to accumulate on a large scale.

• Best Environment Since 2021 - Global liquidity is at an all-time high, with major countries in a rate-cutting mode.

• Shift from Retail-Dominated to Institution-Led Market - Despite signs of overheating, institutional buying provides solid support against downside risks.

Global Liquidity Expansion, Institutional Accumulation, and Regulatory Tailwinds Driving Bitcoin Adoption

There are currently three core drivers propelling the Bitcoin market: 1) Expanding global liquidity, 2) Accelerating institutional capital inflow, and 3) A crypto-friendly regulatory environment. These three factors are working in tandem, creating the strongest upward momentum since the 2021 bull market. Bitcoin has risen approximately 80% year-over-year, and we believe that there are limited factors that could disrupt this upward momentum in the medium to short term.

In terms of global liquidity, a notable point is that the M2 money supply of major economies has exceeded $90 trillion, setting a historical high. Historically, the growth rate of M2 and Bitcoin prices have shown similar directional patterns, and if the current monetary expansion continues, there is still significant room for further appreciation (Exhibit 1).

Moreover, pressure from President Trump to cut rates and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance have paved the way for excess liquidity to flow into alternative assets, with Bitcoin being a major beneficiary.

At the same time, institutional accumulation of Bitcoin is occurring at an unprecedented pace. U.S. spot ETFs hold 1.3 million BTC, accounting for about 6% of the total supply, while MicroStrategy alone holds 629,376 BTC (worth $71.2 billion). The key point is that these purchases represent a structural strategy rather than one-off trades. MicroStrategy continues to buy through the issuance of convertible bonds, particularly marking the formation of a new layer of demand.

Additionally, the executive order issued by the Trump administration on August 7 represents a game-changing factor. Opening 401(k) retirement accounts to Bitcoin investment creates a potential channel to access an $8.9 trillion capital pool. Even a conservative allocation of 1% would mean $89 billion—approximately 4% of Bitcoin's current market value. Given the long-term holding nature of 401(k) funds, this development should not only help with price appreciation but also contribute to reducing volatility. This marks a clear signal of Bitcoin's transition from a speculative asset to a core institutional holding.

Institutional Trading Volume While Retail Activity Declines

The Bitcoin network is currently restructuring around large investors. The daily transaction count has decreased by 41% from 660,000 in October 2024 to 388,000 in March 2025; however, the average transaction amount per Bitcoin transfer has actually increased. The growing number of high-value transactions from institutions like MicroStrategy has expanded the average transaction size. This marks a shift in the Bitcoin network from a "small, high-frequency" to a "large, low-frequency" trading model (Exhibit 2).

However, fundamental indicators show an imbalanced growth. While institutional restructuring is clearly driving up the value of the Bitcoin network, the number of transactions and active users has not yet recovered (Exhibit 3).

Improvements in fundamentals need to be activated through BTCFi (Bitcoin-based decentralized financial services) and other initiatives, but these are still in early development stages and require time to have a meaningful impact.

Overbought, but Institutions Provide Bottom Support

On-chain indicators show some signs of overheating; however, significant downside risks remain limited. The MVRV-Z indicator (which measures the current price relative to the average cost basis of investors) is at 2.49, in the overbought zone, and recently spiked to 2.7, warning of a potential near-term pullback (Exhibit 4).

However, the aSOPR (1.019), which tracks realized profit/loss of investors, and the NUPL (0.558), which measures the overall unrealized profit/loss in the market, remain in stable zones, indicating overall market health (Exhibit 5, 6).

In short, while the current price is high relative to the average cost basis (MVRV-Z), actual selling behavior occurs at moderate profit levels (aSOPR), and the overall market has not reached an excessive profit zone (NUPL).

The purchasing power of institutions outweighing that of retail supports this dynamic. Continuous accumulation from entities like ETFs and MicroStrategy provides solid price support. A pullback may occur in the short term, but a trend reversal seems unlikely.

Target Price of $190,000 with 67% Upside Potential

Our TVM (Time Value of Money) methodology derives a target price of $190,000 through the following framework: we established a base price of $135,000 (removing extreme fear and greed emotions from the current price), then applied a +3.5% fundamental indicator multiplier and a +35% macro indicator multiplier.

The fundamental indicator multiplier reflects improvements in network quality—despite a decrease in transaction count, the transaction value is higher. The macro indicator multiplier captures three powerful forces: expanding global liquidity (e.g., M2 exceeding $90 trillion), accelerating institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs holding 1.3 million BTC), and an improved regulatory environment (e.g., 401(k) eligibility unlocking $8.9 trillion).

From current levels, this implies a 67% upside potential. While the target is aggressive, it reflects the structural changes occurring as Bitcoin transitions from a speculative asset to a core institutional portfolio allocation.