How Low Can Bitcoin Go in September 2025? Bearish BTC Price Prediction Scenarios & Support Analysis

Marketanalysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's technical setup as the cryptocurrencynavigates September trading at $110,804, following Friday's volatile sessionmarked by weak NFP data and bearish candle formations. With historicalSeptember performance showing average declines of 3.77% and technicalindicators suggesting potential deeper corrections, understanding key supportlevels becomes crucial for assessing Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.

Bitcoinstarted September trading around $108,253 but has recovered to $110,800 afterFriday's volatile session that saw prices spike to $113,384 before closing near$110,700. According to my technical analysis, the bearish doji candledrawn during Friday's session—featuring a very long upper wick and extremelynarrow body, could signal a sell-off to deepen the correction.

Key Friday developments:

Bitcoin opened just below $111,000
Reached intraday high of $113,000+
NFP data triggered sharp reversal (22,000 jobs vs 75,000 expected)
Closed at $110,700, below opening price
Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2%

The bearishcandle formation proved significant because it occurred below the supportzone established since early July around $112,000, the historical maximum fromMay 2025 that later served as support in August. This level has now beendefinitively broken, and Bitcoin is testing it from below according to polarityconversion principles in technical analysis.

Bitcoin Expert TechnicalAnalysis: $100K-$104K Target Zone

Accordingto my comprehensive technical analysis, Bitcoin Bitcoin While some may still be wondering what is Bitcoin, who created Bitcoin, or how does Bitcoin work, one thing is certain: Bitcoin has changed the world.No one can remain indifferent to this revolutionary, decentralized, digital asset nor to its blockchain technology.In fact, we’ve gone a long way ever since a Florida resident Laszlo Hanyecz made BTC’s first official commercial transaction with a real company by trading 10,000 Bitcoins for 2 pizzas at his local Papa John’s.One could now argue that While some may still be wondering what is Bitcoin, who created Bitcoin, or how does Bitcoin work, one thing is certain: Bitcoin has changed the world.No one can remain indifferent to this revolutionary, decentralized, digital asset nor to its blockchain technology.In fact, we’ve gone a long way ever since a Florida resident Laszlo Hanyecz made BTC’s first official commercial transaction with a real company by trading 10,000 Bitcoins for 2 pizzas at his local Papa John’s.One could now argue that Read this Term currently faces reasonableresistance strengthened by the 50-day exponential moving average (50 EMA) andthe 23.6% Fibonacci retracement measured from April lows to August'shistorical maximum above $124,000.

WhileBitcoin has several local support levels including $110,000 and $108,000 coincidingwith September lows, the key support level is located significantly lower.I'm currently targeting a technical correction toward the zone stretchingfrom $104,000 to the psychological $100,000 level.

This narrow $4,000 range encompasses:
200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA)
50% Fibonacci retracement
Psychological six-figure level
Coincides with early and late June lows

Thisrepresents an accumulation of many important technical levels that couldconcentrate buy orders. A drop to the mentioned zone would represent onlya 20% correction, which isn't particularly dramatic for Bitcoin markets.

I want toemphasize that I don't believe Bitcoin faces an end to its upward trend: thiswould simply be a healthy technical correction, and declines to thementioned zone would be utilized as entry opportunities.

Bitcoin price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com

Analyst Bitcoin Price Predictions:Bearish Scenarios Range $78K-$95K

Peter Brandt'sHead-and-Shoulders: $78K Target

Legendarytechnical analyst Peter Brandt warns of a potential crash to $78,000 basedon a 45-day head-and-shoulders pattern formation. Brandt's analysis suggeststhis could complete and trigger a significant decline, though he cautionsthat "charts do NOT predict anything. Charts merely suggestpossibilities."

CoinShares: PolicyDisappointment Could Trigger $80K

JamesButterfill from CoinShares sees potential for Bitcoin to correct to $80,000 ifthere's "disappointment surrounding Trump's proposed crypto policiesand doubts about their enactment". This represents a morefundamental-driven bearish scenario tied to regulatory uncertainty.

TradingView Expert: $99K Crash Loading

Cryptoanalyst MelikaTrader94 forecasts an imminent crash below $100,000 asbears take control. The analysis highlights a descending trendline acting asstrong resistance, with Bitcoin lacking momentum for sustained upwardmovement. A drop to $99,000 could "shake out weak hands" beforeany sustainable rally resumes.

ITB Broker: Worst Case$72K-$75K

ITBBroker's analysis presents the most bearish scenario, suggesting that ifthe $105,000 support breaks, selling pressure could push Bitcoin to $96,000,with extreme downside potentially reaching $72,000-$75,000.

Historical Context:September's Brutal Track Record

Bitcoinprice predictions must account for September's devastating historicalperformance. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted average returns of -3.77% inSeptember, closing red in 8 of the past 12 years.

WhySeptember typically brings selling pressure:
Portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors before fiscal year-end
Tax loss harvesting to optimize yearly returns
Reduced summer liquidity amplifying volatility Volatility In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, or stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Trad In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, or stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Trad Read this Term
Psychological selling based on historical patterns

However, RektFencer argues that "a September dump is not coming" thisyear, citing similarities to 2017 when Bitcoin found support after Augustweakness before "rocketing to $20,000".

NFP Impact: Jobs DataTriggers Volatility

Friday's Non-FarmPayrolls miss (22,000 vs 75,000 expected) initially boosted Bitcoin asmarkets priced in higher Fed rate cut probability. However,the volatile reaction saw Bitcoin give back gains, confirming themarket's uncertain direction amid mixed economic signals.

Market pricing now shows:
100% probability of 25-basis-point Fed cut in September
14% chance of 50-basis-point cut
Dollar weakness despite risk-off sentiment in equities

Support Levels: WhereBitcoin Could Find Footing

InvestingHaven's "Buythe Dip" Zone: $78K-$82K

InvestingHavenanalysts identify their primary "buy the dip" targetbetween $78,000-$82,000. This zone represents approximately 25-30%correction from current levels and aligns with historical major support areas.

Changelly's Conservative$108K Floor

Changelly'sSeptember predictions show a minimum target of $108,802 withaverage prices around $119,470. This represents the most conservativedownside scenario among major forecasting platforms.

Binance Technical Levels:$105K-$100K Range

BinanceSquare analysis highlights the $105K-$100K threshold as thenearest critical zone requiring attention. This aligns with my technicalanalysis identifying the same range as primary support.

FAQ: Bitcoin DownsidePotential 2025

How low could Bitcoinrealistically fall in September 2025?

Technicalanalysis suggests $100K-$104K as primary targets, with extreme scenariosreaching $78K-$95K range.

What would trigger adeeper Bitcoin correction?

Breakingbelow $105K support could accelerate selling toward $95K-$99K levels, whilepolicy disappointments could target $78K-$80K.

Is the $100K levelsignificant for Bitcoin?

Yes, itrepresents psychological support, 200-day EMA convergence, and 50% Fibonacciretracement from the April-August trend.

Could Bitcoin's correctionbe healthy for long-term growth?

Mostanalysts view 20% corrections as normal and healthy, providing accumulationopportunities before the next leg up.