What price will bitcoin be by Christmas?
“I see a constructive setup into Christmas. The Fed just delivered its first 25 bp cut of the year and signaled, in its projections, two more cuts by December. That path usually softens the dollar and loosens financial conditions, which favours high-beta assets like bitcoin (BTC-USD),” Cardozo told Yahoo Finance UK.
Cardozo pinpointed the $118,000 to $120,000 zone as key resistance in the near term, but expects further gains if ETF demand remains strong. “My base case is a stair-step move rather than a straight line: a break of $120,000, consolidation, then a run toward price discovery zone into year-end, with a reasonable upside if flows pick up steam,” he said.
He cautioned that “the risk is less about the policy direction and more about positioning and liquidity pockets on the way up,” but added that the balance of probabilities leans bullish: “I think the probabilities favour bitcoin (BTC-USD) closing the year above the $120,000 zone than the low $100,000 zone. All while acknowledging that it is still plausible to reach higher near $150,000 if ETF inflows spike again.”
ETF flows could hold the key
Bitfinex analysts highlighted the structural bid from US spot bitcoin ETFs, which have seen massive inflows since launch.
“In the run-up to the decision, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs pulled in over $600m in a single day, with total US spot BTC ETF AUM at roughly $151.7bn (about 6.6% of bitcoin market cap). Post-decision, we saw the first small wobble, about $51.3m net outflow on the day after as investors digested the Fed’s cautious language; price held near $117,000, underscoring that even modest flow setbacks are being absorbed quickly in this regime,” Bitfinex analysts said.
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The Bitfinex analyst base case heading into Christmas: “With three total 2025 cuts (yesterday plus two more by December) and steady ETF net inflows, bitcoin (BTC-USD) tracks toward $125,000–$135,000 by year-end, with upside skew if flow velocity re-accelerates and the dollar softens.”
But they also flagged risks: “If inflation or growth data slows the Fed’s follow-through (or ETF flows stall), bitcoin (BTC-USD) likely consolidates in a $110,000–$115,000 band into year-end; that floor is reinforced by ETF AUM depth and ongoing institutional participation.”
Bitfinex analysts said the pivot has shifted crypto’s trading drivers. “The policy pivot has moved us from ‘event-driven rallies’ to a flows-and-liquidity tape, watch the daily ETF prints, real yields, and DXY; if they lean dovish, the path of least resistance remains higher.”
The Christmas bitcoin range
So, where does that leave bitcoin (BTC-USD) by December 25th? The consensus among analysts points to a supportive environment heading into the holidays, but with plenty of room for volatility along the way.
Ryan Lee of Bitget sees bitcoin (BTC-USD) consolidating before targeting between $123,000 and $150,000 if the Fed follows through with additional cuts.
Enmanuel Cardozo at Brickken believes the probabilities favour bitcoin (BTC-USD) closing the year above the $120,000 mark rather than slipping back into the low $100,000s, with the possibility of pushing toward $150,000 if ETF inflows accelerate.
Bitfinex analysts, meanwhile, forecast a base case of $125,000 to $135,000 by year-end, with a downside scenario of $110,000 to $115,000 should macro conditions or ETF flows falter.
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