Bitcoin Threatens to Break Support as Trump Threatens to Destroy Iran
War is the macro today.
President Donald Trump posted on Tuesday morning on Truth Social that "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again" unless Iran gives in to U.S. demands. He set 8 p.m. ET as the hard deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.6%, and Dow futures sank 142 points before the opening bell. Oil went the other direction: WTI crude is trading above $115 a barrel, Brent above $110—a more than 70% rise over the last 30 days—the direct result of a Strait of Hormuz closure that has been choking off roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply since late February.
Iran rejected a previous ceasefire proposal from the United States, and international groups such as the International Committee of the Red Cross have said Trump’s threats, if fulfilled, could amount to “war crimes.”
The escalation in rhetoric has markets on edge, and crypto is no different. Bitcoin slipped to $68,557, dropping 2% on the day, and Ethereum slipped 2.7% as traders apparently brace for further turmoil. The logic appears to be that if bombs start falling on civilian infrastructure tonight, investors will flee to safety—and Bitcoin has increasingly shown to not function as a safe haven asset during a war panic.
On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are pricing in only a 24.1% chance that the Iranian regime falls before October. It suggests traders either expect yet another TACO move from Trump or believe the conflict will drag deep into the second half of the year, with no clean resolution in sight.
The Bitcoin chart has seen this movie before
With Bitcoin down around 2% today, the short-term movement doesn't look catastrophic—but the long-term picture isn’t pretty.
The daily charts show three separate attempts by buyers to recover losses after a major top, and three separate failures, since October of last year. Each recovery set a lower high. Each breakdown found a lower bottom. Bitcoin closed Q1 2026 with its worst quarter since 2018, down 22% as war, tariffs, and a hawkish Fed crushed risk appetite. The coin is now at the bottom of the third pattern, hovering above support near $65,000. If this plays out the way the previous two did, the next stop is $55,000 or worse.
The overall indicators show a bearish mood among Bitcoin traders.
The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, show that the 50-day average is trading below the 200-day, which is the quintessential bearish indicator. It means the longer-term trend is still pointed down, and there's no structural reversal in the moving averages yet. When EMAs are in this configuration, traders refer to it as a “death cross,” and rallies tend to get sold into.
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