Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Hits $78K Again: Can It Clear $80K?

What Bitcoin Needs to Clear $80K

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Back in November, Bitcoin's flash crash from its $126K peak bottomed at $80K before stabilizing. BTC then crashed through $80K on February 2 and bottomed at $60K four days later on a forced hedge fund liquidation. Since then, every Bitcoin rally attempt has stalled below this zone, including four failed breakouts in the $75-78K band over the past two months.

Above $80K, the next test is the 200-day EMA around $83,000. That's the line traders are watching as a key level that will tell if Bitcoin’s downtrend is finally over. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed this level in mid-March but retraced right after as it couldn’t hold it. Reclaiming the 200-day EMA would be the clearest sign yet that Bitcoin is on course for a bullish run.

Bitcoin has hit the $75-78K zone four times, but every rally gave back gains before the day ended. If BTC manages to close above $80,000 on a daily chart, it would be the first real signal that an uptrend is on the cards. A weekly close above that level is the stronger signal, and Bitcoin hasn't managed one since January.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

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Bitcoin is at $78,000 with real spot demand behind it, but the next move depends on the $80K resistance breaking or failing again. Here's our view on where the Bitcoin price could go through the next several weeks.

Bullish Case: BTC Could Reach $85,000-$90,000

Bitcoin could clear $80K on a daily close this week and push through the 200-day EMA at $83,000. Short sellers from the 46-day negative funding streak would get forced out as the breakout confirms. If that happens, BTC could rally to $85,000-$90,000 by the end of May, with $100,000 in reach if the short squeeze accelerates.

Base Case: BTC Consolidates Between $76,000 and $82,000

The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 should hold rates as expected, and the market likely won't move much either way since that outcome is priced in. The CLARITY Act markup has slipped to May, so there's no regulatory catalyst before month-end. Bitcoin would likely trade between $76,000 and $82,000, with Strategy's buying holding the $75K support and $80K capping the upside.

Bearish Case: BTC Pulls Back to $70,000-$72,000

Iran could reject the Islamabad talks or the current blockade could trigger another naval incident, making the ceasefire extension unstable and sending oil prices back toward $100. BTC trades with 85% correlation to the Nasdaq during oil spikes, so retail and ETF flows could pause in such a scenario, even as Strategy keeps buying. We believe the Bitcoin price could pull back to $70,000-$72,000 if that happens.

Can Bitcoin Hit $80K In this Rally?

The current setup favors Bitcoin clearing $80K this time. What separates another fake-out from a genuine breakout comes down to one trigger: there's $180 million in short positions waiting to get liquidated between $77,000 and $78,000. A clean daily close above $78K will trigger the liquidation and that could push the BTC price toward $80K.

On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold above $77,300, the $71 million in long positions underneath will trigger instead and drag BTC back into the consolidation range it held before this week's breakout.