“We forecast a balanced development in the crude tanker market in 2025 and 2026 while we expect the product tanker market to remain weaker than in 2024. The product tanker suffers under
“We forecast a balanced development in the crude tanker market in 2025 and 2026 while we expect the product tanker market to remain weaker than in 2024. The product tanker suffers under the weight of increasing supply growth and weaker demand growth due to shorter sailing distances,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
Due to OPEC+’s recent decision to reverse oil production cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has increased its crude oil supply forecast significantly. According to IEA’s forecast, oil demand and refinery throughput can, however, not keep pace the expansion in supply.
“As a result of increased OPEC+ production, the IEA expects an oil surplus averaging 2.3 mbpd during the second half of 2025 and 3.0 mbpd during 2026 while peaking at 4.1 mbpd in the first quarter of 2026,” says Rasmussen.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that the oil surplus could drive the price of Brent down to an average of USD 63/barrel during the second half of 2025 and USD 51/barrel during 2026.
The lower oil prices could help underpin demand but also encourage increased stock building resulting in increased demand for tankers.
However, extra product tanker demand may be limited as
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