"Assuming a significant increase in recycling of older ships and a reduction in average sailing speeds, we forecast that average market conditions in 2026 will be like those in 2025 but 2027
"Assuming a significant increase in recycling of older ships and a reduction in average sailing speeds, we forecast that average market conditions in 2026 will be like those in 2025 but 2027 could see slightly weaker market conditions. We forecast ship demand growth of 2.5%-3.5% in both 2026 and 2027 while supply is estimated to grow 3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings in the not-too-distant future, however, seems increasingly likely, which could result in a 10% reduction in ship demand. Starting in January, CMA CGM’s INDAMEX service will fully return to the Suez Canal while the MEX service will use the Suez Canal on the back-haul leg from Europe to Asia. If these changes are successful, other carriers may slowly begin to change services back to the Suez Canal.
North American import container volumes are expected to contract 3% in 2025. We also expect to see negative growth rates in the first half of 2026 before the market returns to growth in the second half of the year. We forecast that North America import container volumes will grow 2% during
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