Last-Mile Logistics Faces Growth Challenges, New Report Reveals

According to a recent publication by Armstrong & Associates, the U.S. market for big and bulky last-mile delivery is experiencing a slowdown in growth as we move through 2024 and into 2026. This report, created in collaboration with the National Home Delivery Association, dives into various aspects of the market including its size, major players, customer demographics, delivery expenses, and workforce dynamics.The analysis reveals that the third-party logistics sector for big and bulky deliveries reached approximately $10.15 billion in 2024. The companies examined had revenues ranging from $1.5 million to $1.1 billion collectively representing about one-third of this market segment.

From 2017 to 2024,this sector enjoyed an notable average annual growth rate of 11.4%. However, projections indicate a decline to around 7.2% annually from now until 2026.

One significant reason for this tempered outlook is a drop in consumer spending which directly impacts demand for larger deliveries. Additionally,uncertainties surrounding new import tariffs are contributing to this slowdown.

The report emphasizes that since consumer behavior heavily influences last-mile delivery demand, these economic factors pose challenges ahead.

Big and bulky last-mile deliveries encompass items such as furniture, appliances, electronics like televisions or computers—essentially anything requiring more handling than standard small parcels found in e-commerce transactions. this includes both B2B (business-to-business) and B2C (business-to-consumer) shipments.

Several trends are shaping the landscape of this market as well; many third-party logistics providers are increasingly relying on freight brokers to secure capacity while also navigating between employee-based and contractor-based delivery models. Moreover, traditional carriers specializing in less-than-truckload (LTL), household goods transporters, and truckload services are venturing into last-mile solutions due to rising e-commerce demands for larger products.

In response to these shifts within the industry landscape, some companies have begun enhancing their offerings related to oversized deliveries. As an example, UPS Roadie has rolled out RoadieXD—a speedy service tailored specifically for large items—while packsize has launched an innovative on-demand packaging solution aimed at efficiently managing large or irregularly shaped shipments.

As changes continue within this evolving marketplace environment focused on big-and-bulky items; maintaining high service quality will be crucial according to the report’s findings: “3PLs that refine their delivery processes while ensuring top-notch service standards will likely emerge as leaders.”