Bab el Mandeb transits hit highest level since Red Sea exodus
TRANSITS through the Bab el Mandeb last month hit their highest level since January 2024, when shipping decided to leave the region en masse following the first Houthi attacks in late 2023.
Preliminary data shows voyages through the chokepoint in August 2025 numbered 1,044, up nearly 10% on July 2025’s figure of 952.
While not the largest monthly figure by total dwt, the increase shows a returning confidence among some shipowners to use the route that has claimed the lives of several seafarers and vessels since the Houthis began their campaign on shipping in November 2023.
Even the attacks on Magic Seas (IMO: 9736169) and Eternity C (IMO: 9588249), which saw both bulkers lost in July 2025 (and in the case of Eternity C claimed the lives of four seafarers, with many more in Houthi hands), has not dissuaded shipowners from using the route.
Dryad Global’s senior intelligence analyst Scarlett Suarez said last month’s spike was driven partly by “risk normalisation” to the Houthi threat among some shipowners.
LPG tankers showed the biggest increase in transits month on month, up 75% from 12 to 21 transits.
This is the highest level of traffic since December 2023, but still a long way from normal levels, with 68 transits recorded in August 2023.
Last month, 352 bulkers voyaged through the chokepoint, versus 288 in July, driven in part by seasonal demand thanks to the peak Black Sea grain exporting months, Suarez said.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence data has previously shown that China and Greece-linked vessels dominate transits through the Bab el Mandeb.
But in the aftermath of the attacks on Magic Seas and Eternity C, several Greek bulker majors told Lloyd’s List that the risk to their seafarers and vessels was simply too great. Ariston Navigation chief executive and Intercargo chairman John Xylas called it “unacceptably high”.
Charterers seemed to be in agreement too. Safe Bulkers chief executive Polys Hajioannou said his company had received “little or no difficulties from our charterers”, despite the increased voyage time and costs associated with diversion.
He said Safe Bulkers “will never send a vessel into a region where the owners themselves would not feel comfortable to sail on board”.
But clearly that approach is not shared by others.
A section of the industry has continued to use the route since Galaxy Leader (IMO: 9237307) was hijacked nearly two years ago. But the Houthis have sought to reassure the wider industry that their ships will be safe, so long as they play by their rules.
A set of “Frequently Asked Questions” was published by the group last month, which assured safe passage if the vessel is not related to the group’s sanctioned entities list, which largely consists of companies the group claims to be Israeli linked.
The Joint Maritime Information Centre said the group’s claimed attack on Scarlet Ray (IMO: 9799654), managed by Israeli-born Idan Ofer’s Eastern Pacific Shipping, showed the group’s “intent to target Israeli linked vessels in the Red Sea is unchanged”.
A projectile created a large splash near the Liberia-flagged chemical tanker on August 31, but the vessel was not hit, and all crew were reported safe.
Question marks remain over any assurances given by the Houthis, and the majority of the industry has not accepted these assurances and continues to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. While last month’s transits were the highest in more than 18 months, they do not signal a mass return to the Red Sea and instead broadly fit within the “new normal” post-Galaxy Leader.
Control Risks associate analyst Arran Kennedy called the FAQs a “textbook Houthi move to dress up attacks on shipping as legitimate, but it doesn’t change the reality for most shipowners and operators, who will still steer clear of the Red Sea”.
Suarez said that guarantees of safe passage made by the Houthis to Chinese and Russian vessels in early 2024 may have reassured some shipowners but added “their July 2025 threats against 64 companies for alleged 'sanctions violations' and continued attacks using outdated data undermine any assurances”.
“While some shippers are willing to risk crew lives, potential vessel damage, or sinking, the operational environment remains highly volatile,” she said.
“The significant reduction in military presence in the southern Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb, coupled with operations like Aspides lacking the resources to protect numerous vessels, heightens the risk.”
JMIC said it was “highly likely” that the Houthi’s Humanitarian Operations Co-ordination Centre “will continue to make attempts to legitimise itself through various channels, offering support services to vessels wishing to transit through the Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea”.
Any information from the group should be consumed “with extreme caution”, JMIC said.
The threat to Israeli linked vessels is still assessed as “critical” by the centre, with the Houthis likely to conduct an attack if the opportunity presented itself. The threat to all shipping remains “severe”.
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