FEATURE | What value treacherous allies? Iran strikes out as weak Russia and China stand aside

Restraint reflects "cold calculation"

With the Strait of Hormuz already shut, the attacks have sent energy prices soaring, destabilising global markets and forcing major economies to scramble, underscoring the world’s exposure to the fallout from Tehran’s response to the war.

Russia and China’s restraint reflects a cold calculation, analysts say: intervening as Iran faces Israel and the United States would bring high costs, limited gains and unpredictable risks - burdens neither power appears willing to shoulder.

“Putin has other priorities, and chief among them is Ukraine,” said Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert at the Washington Institute. “It would be foolish for Russia to go into a direct military confrontation with the United States.”

A senior Russian source said, “the escalation in and around Iran and the gulf is already diverting attention from the war in Ukraine. That’s just a fact. Everything else is just emotion about a ‘fallen ally’,” the source said.

Beijing and Moscow have both helped Iran build military capacity to counter US and Israeli pressure, supplying missiles, air-defence systems and technology intended to bolster deterrence, complicate US operations and raise the costs of attack. That support, however, now appears capped.