U.S. Container Volumes had Normalized Before Iran Despite Uncertainties
Reports indicate the U.S. import container volume was down significantly in February 2026, but despite the uncertainties in trade, the view was that the volumes were beginning to normalize. Descartes Systems Global, in its monthly report, highlighted that February 2026 was ranked as the fourth-strongest February on record, but the impact from the conflict in Iran adds new uncertainty.
“While February volumes suggest underlying demand remains relatively stable, the military conflict in the Middle East, evolving U.S. tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions have increased routing, cost and policy uncertainty for importers,” said Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes.
February volumes Descartes calculates at just under 2.1 million TEU, which is down more than nine percent month-over-month and 6.5 percent versus February 2025. Last year, importers, it believes, were frontloading volumes ahead of the anticipated tariffs. Timing also comes into play with the post-holiday/winter period and the closures in Asia around the Lunar New Year holiday.
The strongest declines in February 2026 came not from China, which was down 5.5 percent, but from Thailand (19.9 percent), India (17.5 percent), South Korea (17 percent), and Indonesia (15.1 percent). Only Germany was up (5.5 percent) among the top 10 countries, with the overall average down 9.4 percent.
“Unlike February 2025, when frontloading likely inflated volumes, February 2026 activity suggests a normalized trade environment, with importers operating within ongoing policy uncertainty rather than accelerating shipments in anticipation of it,” reports Descartes.
The trade group for retailers, the National Retail Federation, in its monthly Global Port Tracker, says it, however, expects container volumes to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026. It points to the continued trade uncertainties while saying it is too soon to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs, but other tariffs have already been announced, and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses.”
The NRF’s forecast predicts that after a relatively stable February, there will be steeper declines starting in March, with a negative 11 percent, followed by April, down over eight percent versus last year. It sees a pickup in May and June, but forecasts another decline in July. The NRF projects an overall decline of 2.5 percent for the first six months of 2026, resulting in a total volume of 12.21 million TEUs.
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“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region,” said Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates. “While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
While the U.S. has limited imports from the Persian Gulf region, the concern is the amount of shipping volume stuck in the Middle East. In addition, analysts have forecast that as the conflict continues, container volumes will begin to pile up at other ports around the world. They expect port congestion to grow while also noting that countries such as China lack large amounts of storage space for manufacturers. They foresee a cascading impact all along the supply chain, the longer the disruptions continue.
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