Israel-Iran Tensions Could Cost Greece Up to €2.6 Billion

As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could have significant economic consequences for Greece. If hostilities continue for three months, the Greek economy may face losses of up to €2.6 billion, impacting key sectors such as tourism, trade, shipping, and energy.

Energy Prices on the Rise

While Greek refineries do not directly rely on Iranian oil, uncertainty in global markets has already driven energy prices higher. Should the Middle East crisis continue, oil and natural gas prices could surge by as much as 20%. For Greece, this would translate into an additional €1 billion burden on energy imports — equivalent to approximately 0.4% of the country’s GDP.

Rising energy costs would quickly ripple through the economy, driving up prices for transportation, heating, and electricity, potentially triggering a new wave of inflation. An even more concerning scenario would involve the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route for oil shipments. Insurance premiums for Greek shipping interests could rise by €300 to €500 million, while blocked shipping lanes would lead to delays and higher prices for transported goods, including essential imports from Asia.