“Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments are estimated to have plunged 49% combined y/y between January and August 2025. Both countries had a smaller export surplus following weaker grain harvests in the second
“Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments are estimated to have plunged 49% combined y/y between January and August 2025. Both countries had a smaller export surplus following weaker grain harvests in the second half of 2024. Overall, the combined production from both countries was 10% below pre-war levels,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russian and Ukrainian grain harvests fell by 12% and 6% respectively last year due to poor weather conditions. In response to the reduced output, Russia slashed its wheat export quota by 63% between February and June 2025.
Ukrainian seaborne shipments have prevailed despite war-related disruptions and Russian strikes on the port of Odesa in March 2025. However, in June, the EU’s tariff-free trade agreement for Ukrainian agricultural exports expired and the revised deal now excludes wheat and maize.
In 2024, Russia and Ukraine were the fourth and fifth largest grain exporters globally. Russia led in wheat exports while Ukraine ranked fourth in maize and fifth in wheat. The war in Ukraine has led to a drop in Ukrainian wheat and maize yields and during the last harvest, the yields fell to a new low of
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