Report: IMO's NZF tilts future in favor of ammonia DF ships, leaves near-term path in limbo

The International Maritime Organization’s Net Zero Framework (NZF) gives ammonia dual-fuel ships a mid-2030s edge—but the near-term race is still wide open and riddled with uncertainty, a new report has highlighted.

According to a study done by the UK’s UCL Energy Institute Shipping, UMAS and Oceans Research Group titled “IMO’s new Net Zero Framework: implications for the competitiveness of different fuel/energy options“, IMO’s vision is a ‘huge’ step in the right direction concerning the challenge of identifying risks and opportunities across the entire shipping value chain. However, it has left some ‘key’ elements exposed, such as how its reward mechanism will be specified.

To conduct the analysis, the tripartite effort involved using a Total Cost of Operation (TCO) modelling approach to assess the relative competitiveness of a range of fuel and ship technology options. The results reiterated a present sentiment in the industry: fuel choice will be dictated by abatement and penalty costs by the mid-2030s; then, it would be narrowed by emission intensity.

While the report underscores that liquefied natural gas (LNG) will retain its competitive advantage for a while (given that it is,