3 veterans of 'The Big Short' all say they're making this big macro bet for 2026
Michael Burry gets a lot of attention these days, but there were a handful of other traders who also saw the collapse of US housing market coming from a mile away.
Three of them told Business Insider recently that they're all betting on the same macro development in 2026.
Among the traders who rose to fame during the subprime mortgage crisis were the members of a small investing firm called FrontPoint Partners. They included Danny Moses, Vinny Daniel, and Porter Collins. All three have left the company and now collaborate on a Substack and podcast titled What Are We Doing?, on which they discuss contrarian investment takes.
Business Insider recently asked all three traders about their highest conviction calls heading into 2026, and each had a similar answer.
In short, the trio highlighted a slow-burning macro shift that they see putting pressure on the US dollar.
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The stock market has enjoyed a year of mostly upward momentum in 2025, primarily benefitting from the AI trade, an area Moses has expressed some skepticism about. But the three traders are maintaining a fairly cautious outlook as they prepare for the coming year.
Moses told Business Insider that if he had to express his high conviction macro view for 2026 through one trade, it would be betting on gold, a cornerstone of his investing strategy for several years.
He believes that even after gold's breakout year, the precious metal is poised for more growth as the dollar's standing as the world's reserve currency wanes. He noted that he doesn't see anything ahead that could derail gold's rally.
"Between the geopolitics and the sovereign debt levels, I think it just continues to move higher," he said. "To me, gold is the thing that people should watch as an indication for economic stability or macroeconomic stability, including the US dollar."
Moses highlighted a weakened US dollar, noting that a decline in the US currency tends to coincide with strong gold prices.
Vincent Daniel, now the co-founder of investment firm Seawolf Capital, also saw a continuation of the debasement trade in 2026.
"Even though it's been an incredible trade, we think it's going to continue, albeit maybe with a little bit more fits and starts, but we think it'll outperform the S&P," he stated.
Daniel said that his firm sees significant growth potential in emerging markets, specifically China and Brazil. He added that while many business-friendly governments have come to power in Latin America recently, Brazil has high interest rates and real rates of return, in addition to attractively priced stocks.
Collins, a portfolio manager at Seawolf Capital, initially hesitated to express one high-conviction macro trade for 2026. However, like Moses, he pointed to the US dollar's ongoing decline, adding that he sees it losing its value against precious metals, naming gold as a key example.
"I don't know if I have a high conviction around it, but I have a general view that's going to occur," he said.
That said, Collins added that gold prices look stretched and he isn't ruling out a pullback in early 2026.
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