Shipping in 2026 and beyond: the future isn’t what it used to be
SHIPOWNERS don’t trust forecasts.
The more studious among them will pay through the nose for methodically researched supply and demand analysis, which they then disregard.
They will canvas opinion from the few they respect — and judge the actions of those they don’t — accordingly.
They will host lunches to ask the question, only to sigh in disappointment at yet another regurgitated consensus view.
Then they will ignore it all, because they know that sentiment and events overrule everything. Until they don’t.
On paper, 2026 certainly looks more challenging than recent years.
Longer distances have powered shipping markets since 2020, but even with more disruption fuelling those tonne-miles, there is limited upside left for the markets to rely on next year.
Meanwhile, a delivery bulge is nearing, and utilisation is set to slip as the fleet grows 5% against a 1.5% uptick in tonne-mile demand.
Swing factors like the reopening of the Suez Canal, US lifting Russian sanctions, a further escalation of tariffs and trade war skirmishes could all affect markets, but the base-case backdrop for rates is turning tougher in 2026.
The problem with that reading of market dynamics is that shipping has become used to the fact that this is a business that thrives in periods of volatility and disruption, and nobody is predicting any shortage of that next year.
Shipping may have been weaponised, geopolitically speaking, but most maritime markets did just fine in 2025.
Amid wars, disintegrating multilateralism and trade being forced to reroute down geopolitical lines, this has been another hugely profitable year for many.
Sure, the disruptive forces that have allowed shipping markets to defy economic gravity thus far are not going to last forever, but unpredictability, crisis and luck continue to override any immediate concerns.
Black swans are, by definition, unpredictable, but the known disrupting factors continue to buoy the current positive mood.
A Red Sea return may change some calculations, but when Lloyd’s List polled the industry earlier this month, the consensus view points to 2027 — or possibly late 2026 — as the earliest return. A further 40% believe that it might be later, or may never return to previous levels.
The prospect of peace and the lifting of sanctions remains an outlier for now, but even if that happens, the overall impact on markets would likely not be too dramatic.
Reintegration of the younger, sub-20-year-old fleet and idled vessels, coupled with increased trading efficiency of Russian exports, will likely offset the upsides from the exit of the ‘ageing (over 20-year-old) and trading’ fleet.
The more likely indicator to be looking at right now is the steady flow of shadow fleet* ships from fraudulent flags into the Russian ship register. A more permanent parallel fleet, given guarantees of state backing, suggests a structural shift in the market dynamics driven down political trade lines.
A further flare-up in tariffs could yet deepen trade divisions, but given the disruption that has already been overcome, it is hard to see how this would incur much more of an impact on global shipping demand.
But what about those incoming ships?
Tankers, dry bulk and container carriers all face scheduled newbuild deliveries that exceed projected tonne-mile growth.
The optimist’s view (is there any other in shipping?) concedes that the orderbook is large, but not disproportionately so. You have to look at the ageing fleet, explain those most exposed. The last big orderbook splurge arrived on the water in 2008-2010 and they are 15 years old and becoming obsolete.
So yes, the orderbook is big, but fleet renewal is necessary and arguably there are still some sectors underbuilt, so we could yet see more.
How much more is the big question. Even the optimists have been whispering concerns of late regarding China’s yard capacity, which seems to be quietly increasing in unexpected ways.
Docks are opening, old yards are starting to be reactivated and slots that were previously full are somehow becoming free in 2027.
Scrapping, meanwhile, has been underwhelming since 2018, with 2025 marking an eighth straight year of lower-than-average activity.
The delay of the Net-Zero Framework this year at the International Maritime Organization was another boost for owners of older, conventionally-fuelled tonnage, whose trading life can now potentially be extended yet again. This keeps veteran units in the active fleet and retains more surplus capacity than originally envisioned by bullish proponents of decarbonisation rules.
Demolition of vintage tonnage could help absorb next year’s delivery wave, but even if the pent-up scrapping boom did materialise in 2026, it would be unlikely to make much of a difference quickly enough.
Meanwhile, all this focus on the immediate disruption in front of us has rather distracted from the longer-term problems that previously kept forecast writers in business as they opined about the unknowable future.
Everything from technology to globalisation itself continues to change around the traditional business model.
Globalisation’s earlier phase was designed and defined by scale and symmetry. One set of rules for all. One currency system to clear transactions. One consensus on the value of integration.
As we have noted repeatedly during 2025, that is changing.
Supply routes are mapped not only for distance and cost, but for political alignment.
They are increasingly contingent on security of passage and the shifting sands of sanctions regimes that may be profitable while they are in flux — but what happens if a more fractured global economy becomes the established norm?
The rise of regional blocs and diversified trade corridors may increase resilience by shortening supply chains and reducing exposure to geopolitical risk, but it reduces the efficiency of the globalised trading system that much of shipping’s modern business models have been structured around to date.
Shipping can only rely on disruption for so long before considering the structural adaptation required to navigate the new world order.
This article is part of Lloyd’s List’s 2026 annual outlook
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